Interesting assertion. I invite you to draft a claim based on it and submit
it to the Foresight Exchange (http://www.ideosphere.com), a marketplace
where the commodities are claims about future events. Participants invest
'for' or 'against' the claims, yielding a value between 0 and 100 that
indicates the market's consensus of each claim's percentage chance of
coming true.
Because a market perspective applies, people tend to invest based on what
they believe will happen, not necessarily what they *want* to happen,
giving results that are quite, er, objective.
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Ken Kittlitz ken@kumo.com
http://www.lucifer.com/~ken
Kumo Software Corp. http://www.kumo.com
Ideosphere Inc. http://www.ideosphere.com
"I have the heart of a little boy; I keep it in a jar on my desk."
-Robert Bloch